Does everyone have memory loss with regard to war? If you listen to the pundits you will hear the drumbeat for war in Libya, most without acknowledging that this is what they are advocating. There are two sides doing the pushing. One is the neocon side who seem never to have met a dictator they didn't want to remove by force, especially a dictator in the Muslim world. The other side are the humanitarian groups who, in this case, see our hard power as something we can exercise for good, not acknowledging that if something goes wrong, they will be among the first to blame the US for mistaken civilian casualties and, if a democratic Libya doesn't rise from the ashes of this conflict, then the US will also be blamed for the disintegration of the state or the rise of strong men who impose their will on the people. We cannot win in this battle, but both sides seem intent on our entering into another misadventure in the Muslim world, even as it is said that we do not understand that world and we do not exercise our power well.
I doubt that anyone in government wants to see what is happening in Libya go from bad to worse. There are reasons both pro and con for intervention. However, given our track record and given the Muslim world's reaction to that track record, I don't really see a success in the offing. We saved Bosnia and Kosovo after terrible civil conflict, but no power in the Muslim world publicly approved of that effort. Instead, they have allowed the meme that we want to destroy the Muslim world to permeate much of the so-called Muslim street. Yes, our adventures in Iraq in this decade have done nothing to aid the US cause, but remember, we did get deeply involved in this effort originally to "save" Kuwait, a Muslim nation, from Saddam. That seems to have been completely sent down the rabbit hole. It was also done with the support and encouragement of the Saudi's. But they continue to allow their clerics to push an incredibly anti-western messages to their people and many of the terrorists threatening the western world come from there, including most of those who flew planes into the trade center, the pentagon and those in Yemen who have launched smalled but still deadly attacks in the US.
While advocating for US withdrawal from these countries, many have called on the US to stop using hard power to bring about regime change and democracy. Those same people are now beating the drums for war in Libya. And, as the Defense Secretary pointed out, make no mistake, even setting up a no-fly zone is war. Further, it is war without a clear end game. What happens when the no-fly zone doesn't work? What happens if Gaddafi hangs on for months or years? What happens, if as it appears in today's paper, he starts holding refugees as hostages, not letting them flee the war zone? What happens when we accidentally drop a bomb on civilians while taking out air defenses. What happens if we have another "Blackhawk Down" scenario? And yet, all these questions aren't even discussed, but the President is pictured as dithering for taking time to line up allies and even people who are willing to sit on the fence. Yes, people are dying in Libya at the hands of a disgusting, amoral, tyrant. But they are dying in other parts of the world, like the Ivory Coast, Sudan, and Somalia everyday in the same way so why is Libya the ONE place where we should use hard power to save lives?
The same people who say that we cannot be the policemen for the world are saying we should be setting up a no-fly zone, without acknowledging that this is where policing starts. As someone said in beginning the Iraq adventure, if you break it, you own it. No one seems to remember that when they are cavalierly suggesting we intervene militarily. No one even wants the President to take the time to consider the options, all the options, very carefully before we become involved in the fourth war in 20 years in a Muslim country. [And we won't even count Bosnia, Kosovo, Somalia in the tally].
I do not envy the President. I do not have any good options for him or us. I would note that Egypt has one of the largest militaries in the Arab world, trained and equipped by the US. Yet, they appear to be unwilling to use their hard power to aid their brothers in Libya. They can't even put out a strong resolution in the Arab League that actually kicks Gaddafi's Libya out of the League. [hedging their bets?] They also aren't calling for a western no-fly zone. The Saudis have an expensive and well-equipped army and air force, yet they have no appetite for helping their fellow Arab brothers. No power in the middle east seems interested in aiding their Libyan brothers. Yes, some of this is because they don't want a democratic Libya because it will only encourage their people to ask for greater freedom. But still, where is all that solidarity among the Muslim brotherhood to protect the vulnerable people of Libya who are being gunned down in the streets by their own leader? No, they'd rather the west fix this, so they can't be blamed if it doesn't turn out well. And I'm sure there will be no shortage of blame for the US, whichever way this turns out for Libya.
I do hope the Libyan people prevail against this monster. I support all the soft power we can muster. Why aren't we in Chad, Mali and Niger trying to stem the mercenaries at the source rather than killing them once they arrive? What about the alleged Algerian, Italian and other non-black African mercenaries? What is being done to ensure they aren't heading for Libya? I know that soft power is slow and often ineffective, but I believe that we should try it first, at least until there is no other way. And even then, we need to drag the rest of the world along with us before we go forth and enter yet another war in a Muslim country. We also need to be very clear with the American people that when we start using military means to achieve this objective, it may get very ugly and many people may still die. And pundits, and Senators, and reporters need to shut up about what we should or should not do until they are ready to pick up a gun and help.
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